Tuesday, August 07, 2012

The invisible supernova

I was a rather late adopter of Facebook. I don't think it was till late 2009 did I finally move to Facebook. Three years on, I think the Facebook like button is the most ubiquitous object in cyber space. Almost every website I visit seems to want me to login with Facebook and wants to tell the world that I was there. That's creepy. Very creepy. Not to mention an invasion of privacy. Sure Facebook will tell you they offer privacy controls, but they are clumsy and don't work.

For what it's worth, I have had a much bigger online presence since I started using Facebook. I wasn't very prolific on the previous darling of the masses - Orkut (or MySpace for others). More than knowing about my friends updates, I tended to use Orkut more as a means to get back in touch with people who I thought had lost to the travails of time. Facebook much cleaner than Orkut and although it's kind of crap in the mobile form, it's helped me reconnect with many more people than I ever Imagined. Thank you for that Zuck.

In 2010 Facebook hired their first college graduates from India. One of them also had an offer from Google but passed on it in favor of what he must have felt was an exciting new world at Facebook. Suddenly Facebook was the new Google, and Google was the new Microsoft - a clumsy old corporation. Facebook poached Google's college grad hires, their staff and even their head chef ( ouch!! ). At the time I thought, Ok they are offering a few more dollars, but how exactly does Facebook make money ? Turns out they don't make a lot of it.

Being a dreamy eyed startup and handing out "I'm CEO bitch" visiting cards was a far cry from the rules other companies like Google and Microsoft and Apple were playing by. And then Facebook went public. What followed was a well documented series of gaffes. First lead under writer Morgan Stanley cut earnings outlooks during the IPO roadshow. For those un-initiated with finance, the rough price of a stock is usually some numerical factor multiplied by the companies earnings. Nobody ever cuts earnings during a road show. Then on IPO day Nasdaq botched trading in Facebook. As of today Facebook is valued at $44Billion, down from the awe inspiring $100Billion they started off with. As of close of business, Google, Microsoft and Apple all have enough cash on hand to buy Facebook. Strangely, nothing has changed at Facebook in these months. If anything they've added a few million users, some new features and some more ads.

Last week Knight Capital's computers went haywire and lost the firm more than $450Million. The whole financial world was talking about it. Regulators, bankers and even the politicians. If $450Million is a flash, then the $66Billion of wealth destroyed by the Facebook IPO is a supernova. But it's an invisible supernova, because this time we can't blame the machines.

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